| Title | North Carolina forecasts for truck traffic |
|---|---|
| Record ID | 32346 |
| Personal Name Creator |
Stone, John R.; Han, Y.; Ramkumar, Rajit |
| Source | 198p. in various pagings |
| Corporate Contributor |
North Carolina State University. Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering; North Carolina. Dept. of Transportation |
| Publisher | North Carolina. Department of Transportation. Research and Analysis Group |
| Publication Date | 20060700 |
| Language | English |
| Abstract | North Carolina has experienced significant increases in truck traffic on many of its highways. Yet, current NCDOT project-level highway traffic forecasts do not appropriately capture anticipated truck traffic growth. NCDOT methods forecast total traffic AADT based on historical trends and assume base year and future year truck percentages are the same. Also, NCDOT determines the growth factor of historical AADT traffic data by looking only at the first year and the last year ignoring intermediate year traffic data. This research recommends that traffic for dual axle (Dual) trucks and tractor trailer (TTST) trucks be separately forecast using an average growth factor (AGF) method that uses all available data and calculates growth factors year by year and averages them for the historical trend. The results of this research propose statistical methods to separately estimate growth factors for light vehicles (Cars), Duals and TTSTs. In this study Cars represent FHWA vehicle classes 1-3, Duals 4-7 and TTSTs 8-13. The methods have modest data requirements based on NCDOT traffic counts and VTRIS on-line traffic data. Statistical guidelines including mean AGFs and confidence intervals to help refine the estimates for growth factors by vehicle class and highway type. Case study examples demonstrate the methods and guidelines for Interstate, US, and NC highways. Other issues are explored including the effects of increased truck traffic on highway level of service and pavement design. |
| Rosap ID | dot:5718 |
| Rosap URL | https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/5718 |
| TRT Terms | Truck traffic; Traffic forecasting; Traffic counts; Pavement design; Traffic data |
| General Subjects | Traffic forecasts; Truck traffic; Highway design; Pavement design; Traffic counts |
| Classification | NTL - FREIGHT - Trucking Industry; NTL - FREIGHT - Freight Planning and Policy; NTL - PLANNING AND POLICY - Freight Planning and Policy; NTL - OPERATIONS AND TRAFFIC CONTROLS - Traffic Flow |
| Geographical Coverage |
North Carolina |
| OCLC | 669993401 |
| Report Number | FHWA/NC/2006-28 |
| Resource type | Research Paper |
| URL | https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/lib/32000/32300/32346/2004-11FinalReport.pdf |
| Format | |
| Database | NTL Digital Repository |