NTL Record

Title Rail-Highway Crossing Hazard Prediction: Research Results
Record ID 33329
Personal Name
Creator
Mengert, Peter
Source 256p. in various pagings
Corporate Creator John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
Publisher United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Railroad Administration
Publication Date 19791200
Language English
Abstract This document presents techniques for constructing and evaluating railroad grade crossing hazard indexes. Hazard indexes are objective formulas for comparing or ranking crossings according to relative hazard or for calculating absolute hazard index (conditional expected frequency of grade crossing accidents) on an individual crossing basis. Relative and absolute hazard indexes are constructed and compared in performance with some hazard indexes in general use. The DOT-AAR crossing inventory for all public crossings in the United States and the FRA accident data base for 1975 are used. Various measures and displays of performance of hazard indexes in predicting the hazard of crossings as functions of their inventory characteristics and as manifest in the U.S. accident experience of 1975 are given. The levels of performance that may be expected of various hazard indexes in various situations are given. Relative and absolute hazard indexes constructed on this project are exhibited which outperform other hazard indexes tested. Means for shaping a relative hazard index into an absolute hazard index are given. An introductory discussion is provided on the use of accident history in hazard indexes. Preliminary estimates are given of some of the parameters involved in that discussion. Theoretical aspects of this report include some discussions of nonlinear regression and nonlinear discriminant analysis as well as some aspects of empirical Bayesian statistics.
Rosap ID dot:8584
Rosap URL https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/8584
TRT Terms Hazard analysis; Railroad grade crossings; Crash rates
General Subjects Accident Prediction; Hazard Index; Grade Crossing; Nonlinear Regression
Classification NTL - SAFETY AND SECURITY - SAFETY AND SECURITY;
NTL - SAFETY AND SECURITY - Human Factors
Geographical
Coverage
United States
OCLC 6237100
TRIS Online
Accession No
314001
Contract Number RR033/R0301
Report Number DOT-TSC-FRA-79-1; FRA-RRS-80-02
Availability Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Technical Reference Center
Resource type Tech Report
URL https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/lib/33000/33300/33329/33329.pdf
Alternative URL https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/lib/33000/33300/33339/33339.pdf
Format PDF
Database NTL Digital Repository