| Title | Statistical Estimation of Rollover Risk |
|---|---|
| Record ID | 33408 |
| Personal Name Creator |
Mengert, Peter; Salvatore, S; Disario, Robert; Walters, R. |
| Source | 76p. in various pagings |
| Corporate Creator | John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.) |
| Publisher | United States. Department of Transportation. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration |
| Publication Date | 19890800 |
| Language | English |
| Abstract | This report describes the results of a statistical analysis to determine the probability of a rollover in a single vehicle accident. Over 39,000 accidents, which included 4910 rollovers in the states of Texas, Maryland, and Washington were examined for 40 vehicle make/models using logistic regression analyses. Mathematical models were developed that related vehicle factors such as wheelbase and stability factor, (one-half the track width divided by the center of gravity height) and accident factors, (driver and the environmental variables), to rollover probability. It was found that at the accident level (predicting rollover versus nonrollover) the vehicle stability factor and whether the accident occurred on an urban or rural road are important predictors of rollover probability. At the vehicle make/model level (comparison of predicted and actual rollover rates for the 40 make/models), the index of agreement (r2) exceeded 0.90 with the stability factor in the regression model. Without the stability factor, the r2 dropped to 0.53 indicating the importance of this factor. Other factors added little to predicting rollover at the make/model level. |
| Rosap ID | dot:8620 |
| Rosap URL | https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/8620 |
| TRT Terms | Rollover crashes; Mechanical stability; Mathematical models; Risk analysis; Regression analysis; Estimation theory; Statistical analysis; Crashes |
| General Subjects | Rollover; Logistic Regression; Single Vehicle Accidents |
| Classification | NTL - SAFETY AND SECURITY - SAFETY AND SECURITY; NTL - SAFETY AND SECURITY - Human Factors |
| Geographical Coverage |
United States |
| Contract Number | HS902/S9001 |
| Report Number | DOT-TSC-NHTSA-89-3; DOT-HS-807-446 |
| Availability | Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Technical Reference Center |
| Resource type | Tech Report |
| URL | https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/lib/33000/33400/33408/33408.pdf |
| Format | |
| Database | NTL Digital Repository |