| Title | A new model to improve aggregregate air traffic demand predictions |
|---|---|
| Record ID | 35068 |
| Personal Name Creator |
Gilbo, Eugene |
| Source | AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference and Exhibit, Hilton Head, SC, August 20-23, 2007; 11p. in various pagings |
| Corporate Creator | John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.) |
| Publisher | American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics |
| Publication Date | 20070820 |
| Language | English |
| Abstract | Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic flow management (TFM) decision-making is based primarily on a comparison of predictions of traffic demand and available capacity at various National Airspace System (NAS) elements such as airports, fixes and en-route sectors. The FAA uses the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) to predict traffic demand and available capacity, identify congestion and alert NAS elements when the predicted demand exceeds capacity. Although predicted demands and capacities are uncertain, ETMS treats them deterministically and does not take into account the errors in subsequent prediction updates. This paper proposes a regression model for improving aggregate traffic demand predictions in ETMS. This approach acknowledges the uncertainty in these predictions, and uses ETMS demand count data in a novel way to make improved predictions in terms of both accuracy and stability. The proposed linear regression model includes predicted demand counts for a time interval of interest along with the demand predictions for two immediately adjacent intervals: the preceding and the following ones. The model was calibrated and validated using data from 9 airports and 13 en-route sectors. Numerical results are presented that illustrate the potential benefits of using the proposed model. |
| Rosap ID | dot:8938 |
| Rosap URL | https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/8938 |
| TRT Terms | Regression analysis; Arrivals and departures; Air traffic flow management; Traffic forecasting |
| Classification | NTL - AVIATION - AVIATION; NTL - AVIATION - Air Traffic Control; NTL - AVIATION - Aviation Planning and Policy |
| Geographical Coverage |
United States |
| Report Number | AIAA 2007-6450 |
| Availability | Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Technical Reference Center |
| Resource type | Proceedings |
| URL | https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/lib/35000/35000/35068/Gilbo_Smith_AIAA-2007-6450-912.pdf |
| Format | |
| Database | NTL Digital Repository |