NTL Record

Title An Assessment of the Risks Presented by Carbon Fiber Composites Released from Motor Vehicle Fires
Record ID 49089
Personal Name
Creator
Rosenfield, Donald B.; Fiksel, Joseph; Kalelkar, Ashok S.
Source 87p. in various pagings
Corporate Creator Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Corporate
Contributor
John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
Publisher United States. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Special Programs Administration; United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Publication Date 19800301
Language English
Abstract A risk assessment was conducted to estimate the potential losses through 1993 due to the usage of carbon fiber (CF) composites in U.S. motor vehicles, including automobiles and trucks. A methodology was developed to compute estimated dollar losses by county and equipment type, using a Poisson model for the incidence of equipment failures. This approach incorporated data on the geographic distribution of potentially vulnerable facilities, as well as the mean CF exposure levels at which various equipment would fail. The results were then statistically aggregated to produce a national risk profile for estimated annual losses in 1993. The expected loss was $5,567 per year (1977 dollars), and the likelihood of exceeding $500,000 in annual losses was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand. The sensitivity of these results to major input parameters was investigated, and it was found that under extreme worst-case assumptions the annual loss would increase to about $1.5 million.
Rosap ID dot:10568
Rosap URL https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/10568
TRT Terms Fiber composites; Carbon fibers; Composite materials; Fires; Hazards; Motor vehicles; Poisson distributions; Maximum likelihood method; Estimates; Costs; Risk assessment; Failure
General Subjects Failure modes
Classification NTL - SAFETY AND SECURITY - Vehicle Design
Geographical
Coverage
United States
Contract Number NAS1-15380
Report Number DOT-TSC-RSPA-80-4; NASA-CR-159207
Resource type Tech Report
URL https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/lib/49000/49000/49089/DOT-TSC-RSPA-80-04.pdf
Format PDF
Database NTL Digital Repository