| Title | Making a Model a Good Predictive Tool |
|---|---|
| Record ID | 80684 |
| Personal Name Creator |
Rossi, Thomas |
| Personal Name Contributor |
Sun, Sarah |
| Corporate Creator | United States. Federal Highway Administration |
| Corporate Contributor |
Cambridge Systematics, Inc. |
| Publisher | United States. Federal Highway Administration |
| Publication Date | 20161130 |
| Language | English |
| Abstract | A basic part of travel demand model validation is running the model for a “base year” and comparing the outputs to observed data. Sensitivity testing and temporal validation are also critical components of any model validation effort. In this project, two model versions for each of two metropolitan areas were run twice each: 1) the more recent version for its base year and a backcast scenario (for the base year of the earlier model version), and 2) the earlier version for its base year and a forecast scenario (for the base year of the later model version). Some lessons from the comparison of the model results were presented, demonstrating the difficulty that models can have in forecasting and reinforcing the need for accuracy checking in model input data. |
| Rosap ID | dot:55807 |
| Rosap URL | https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/55807 |
| TRT Terms | Travel demand; Traffic models; Traffic forecasting |
| General Subjects | Model validation; Backcasting; Forecasting |
| Geographical Coverage |
United States |
| TRIS Online Accession No |
1648879 |
| Contract Number | DTFH61-13-F-00101 |
| Report Number | FHWA-HEP-17-048 |
| Resource type | Tech Report |
| URL | https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/lib/80000/80600/80684/FHWA-HEP-17-048.pdf |
| Format | |
| Database | NTL Digital Repository |