TRIS Online Record

Printable View

Title	Measurement of Uncertainty Costs with Dynamic Traffic Simulations
Accession No	01099540
Authors	Marchal, Fabrice ; de Palma, Andre
Journal Title	Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board No. 2085
Corp. Authors / Publisher	Transportation Research Board
Publication Date	20080000
Description	pp 67-75; Figures(5); References(25); Tables(2)
Media Type	Print
Languages	English
Abstract	Nonrecurrent congestion in transportation networks occurs as a consequence of stochastic factors affecting demand and supply. Intelligent transportation systems such as advanced traveler information systems and advanced traffic management systems are designed to reduce the impacts of nonrecurrent congestion by providing information to a fraction of users or by controlling the variability of traffic flows. For these reasons, the design of these systems requires a reliable forecast of nonrecurrent congestion. A new method is proposed to measure the impacts of nonrecurrent congestion on travel costs by taking risk aversion into account. The traffic model is based on the dynamic traffic simulation model METROPOLIS. Incidents are generated randomly by reducing the capacity of the network. Users can instantaneously adapt to the unexpected travel conditions or can also change their behavior through a day-to-day adjustment process. Comparisons with incident-free simulations provide a benchmark for potential travel time savings that can be brought about by a state-of-the-art information system. The impact of variable travel conditions is measured by describing the willingness to pay to avoid risky or unreliable journeys. Indeed, for risk-averse drivers, any uncertainty corresponds to a utility loss. This utility loss is computed for several levels of network disruption. The main result of the study is that the utility loss due to uncertainty is of the same order of magnitude as the total travel costs.
TRT Terms	Advanced traffic management systems ; Advanced traveler information systems ; Nonrecurrent congestion ; Traffic congestion ; Traffic models ; Traffic simulation ; Travel costs ; Traveler information and communication systems ; Uncertainty
Other Terms	Willingness to pay
Subject Areas	Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72 Traffic and Transport Planning
ISBN	9780309125963
Availability	Transportation Research Board Business Office Order Document: http://trb.org/news/blurb_detail.asp?id=9998 Find a library where document is available Order Document: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309125963
URLs	Document: http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2085-08
TRIS Files	HRIS
Database	TRIS Online